J.D.
Troy, Mich.—J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast total U.S. new-vehicle sales for August 2025 at 1,483,000 units (retail and non-retail), an 8.2% increase versus August 2024. August 2025 contains 27 selling days, one fewer than August 2024; without adjusting for selling days, the sales-volume increase is 4.4% year over year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is projected at 16.1 million units.
Retail new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1,283,000 units, a 7.8% increase from August 2024 (a 3.9% increase on an unadjusted selling-days basis). Fleet deliveries are expected to total 199,854 units, up 11.2% from August 2024, representing 13.5% of total light-vehicle sales (up 0.4 percentage points year over year).
J.D. Power and GlobalData highlight several factors shaping August results: - The federal EV tax credit of up to $7,500 is set to expire on Sept. 30, which is prompting some EV shoppers to accelerate purchases. EV retail share in August is expected to reach a record 12.0% (up from 9.5% a year ago and up 1.6 percentage points from July). - Labor Day falls within the August sales reporting period, typically boosting weekend sales via elevated manufacturer promotional activity; however, tariff-related cost pressures have restrained incentives. Incentive spending as a percentage of MSRP is forecast at 6.2% in August (down 0.1 percentage points from August 2024 and down 0.1 percentage points from January’s 6.3%). - Lease returns remain at historically low levels following reduced leasing activity during the 2022 supply shortages, reducing the typical flow of returning lessees into the market.
Vehicle mix and inventory: - Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 72.2% of new-vehicle retail sales (down 5.6 percentage points year over year). Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 12.6% (up 2.0 points), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) 2.5% (up 0.6 points), and EVs 12.8% of retail sales (up 3.2 points). - Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 82.0% of new-vehicle retail sales (up 2.1 points). - U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 52.5% of sales (up 2.4 points). - Retail inventory levels are about 2.10 million units (up 18.6% from August 2024), and industry days of supply are forecast at 58 days (up from 51 days a year ago). The average time a new vehicle remains in dealer inventory before sale is expected to be 51 days (up from 48 days).
Prices, incentives and dealer economics: - The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in August is expected to reach $44,750, up $985 (2.2%) from August 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP is projected at 89.3% (down 0.4 percentage points from a year ago). - Average incentive spending per unit is expected to be $3,105 (up $38 from August 2024), equal to 6.2% of average MSRP (down 0.1 percentage points from August 2024). Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs is expected to be $3,302 (up $53 year over year); on cars it is expected to be $2,146 (down $163 year over year). - Total retailer profit per unit (vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income) is expected to be $2,202, down $7 from August 2024 but up $10 from July 2025. Aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales is projected at $2.7 billion, up 2.6% from August 2024.
Consumer finance, used-vehicle and trade-in trends: - Retail buyers are on track to spend roughly $54.1–$54.6 billion on new vehicles in August, a year-over-year increase and the highest on record for the month of August in the forecasts. - Average monthly finance payments are on pace to reach $743, up $13 from August 2024, the highest on record for August. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.40%, down 38 basis points from a year ago. - Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.2% of finance sales (up 1.8 percentage points year over year). - The percentage of buyers with sub-650 FICO scores is reported in the forecast as trending toward 13.3%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from last year; J.D. Power also notes that the level for August was 13.7% in 2018 when referencing historical context. - The average used-vehicle price is trending toward $29,100, up $375 from a year ago. Average trade-in equity in August is expected to be $8,030, up $275 year over year, while 25.3% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity (up 1.1 percentage points from August 2024).
Electrification specifics: - J.D. Power reports automaker EV incentives averaged about $6,700 per unit in August (an increase of $1,500 from July), contributing to lower average EV transaction prices—J.D. Power notes average EV transaction prices are down $2,500 to $44,300, which it states is now below the average for gas-powered vehicles. - EV inventory stood at about 197,000 units with a 59-day supply as of the August forecast.
Global context (from GlobalData): - GlobalData notes July global light-vehicle sales rose 5.5% year over year to 7.4 million units, and the July global selling rate finished at 94.5 million units (up from a revised 92.6 million units in June). GlobalData projects August global selling rate around 89.8 million units and a full-year 2025 global light-vehicle forecast of 90.3 million units (growth of 1.7% year over year), while noting regional variations in performance.
The forecast emphasizes that the approaching expiration of federal EV credits, Labor Day timing and tariff-related cost pressures on incentives are key crosscurrents affecting August 2025 sales volumes, mix and pricing.
Sources: J.D. Power and GlobalData August 2025 forecast as reported in J.D. Power press materials and summarized by industry outlets. (See J.D. Power/GlobalData primary release and related coverage.)
Source: Noah Wire Services