J.D.

Power and GlobalData project August 2025 U.S. total new-vehicle sales at 1.483 million (retail and non-retail), up 8.2% year-on-year, with EVs accounting for a record 12.0% of retail sales as buyers accelerate purchases ahead of the Sept. 30 federal EV credit expiry. Labour Day promotions and tariff pressures are expected to influence incentives, pricing and mix for the month.

Troy, Mich.—J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast total U.S. new-vehicle sales for August 2025 at 1,483,000 units (retail and non-retail), an 8.2% increase versus August 2024. August 2025 contains 27 selling days, one fewer than August 2024; without adjusting for selling days, the sales-volume increase is 4.4% year over year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is projected at 16.1 million units.

Retail new-vehicle sales are forecast at 1,283,000 units, a 7.8% increase from August 2024 (a 3.9% increase on an unadjusted selling-days basis). Fleet deliveries are expected to total 199,854 units, up 11.2% from August 2024, representing 13.5% of total light-vehicle sales (up 0.4 percentage points year over year).

J.D. Power and GlobalData highlight several factors shaping August results: - The federal EV tax credit of up to $7,500 is set to expire on Sept. 30, which is prompting some EV shoppers to accelerate purchases. EV retail share in August is expected to reach a record 12.0% (up from 9.5% a year ago and up 1.6 percentage points from July). - Labor Day falls within the August sales reporting period, typically boosting weekend sales via elevated manufacturer promotional activity; however, tariff-related cost pressures have restrained incentives. Incentive spending as a percentage of MSRP is forecast at 6.2% in August (down 0.1 percentage points from August 2024 and down 0.1 percentage points from January’s 6.3%). - Lease returns remain at historically low levels following reduced leasing activity during the 2022 supply shortages, reducing the typical flow of returning lessees into the market.

Vehicle mix and inventory: - Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are projected to account for 72.2% of new-vehicle retail sales (down 5.6 percentage points year over year). Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are expected to account for 12.6% (up 2.0 points), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) 2.5% (up 0.6 points), and EVs 12.8% of retail sales (up 3.2 points). - Trucks/SUVs are on pace to account for 82.0% of new-vehicle retail sales (up 2.1 points). - U.S. final assembly vehicles are expected to make up 52.5% of sales (up 2.4 points). - Retail inventory levels are about 2.10 million units (up 18.6% from August 2024), and industry days of supply are forecast at 58 days (up from 51 days a year ago). The average time a new vehicle remains in dealer inventory before sale is expected to be 51 days (up from 48 days).

Prices, incentives and dealer economics: - The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in August is expected to reach $44,750, up $985 (2.2%) from August 2024. Transaction price as a percentage of MSRP is projected at 89.3% (down 0.4 percentage points from a year ago). - Average incentive spending per unit is expected to be $3,105 (up $38 from August 2024), equal to 6.2% of average MSRP (down 0.1 percentage points from August 2024). Average incentive spending per unit on trucks/SUVs is expected to be $3,302 (up $53 year over year); on cars it is expected to be $2,146 (down $163 year over year). - Total retailer profit per unit (vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income) is expected to be $2,202, down $7 from August 2024 but up $10 from July 2025. Aggregate retailer profit from new-vehicle sales is projected at $2.7 billion, up 2.6% from August 2024.

Consumer finance, used-vehicle and trade-in trends: - Retail buyers are on track to spend roughly $54.1–$54.6 billion on new vehicles in August, a year-over-year increase and the highest on record for the month of August in the forecasts. - Average monthly finance payments are on pace to reach $743, up $13 from August 2024, the highest on record for August. The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans is expected to be 6.40%, down 38 basis points from a year ago. - Finance loans with terms greater than or equal to 84 months are expected to reach 11.2% of finance sales (up 1.8 percentage points year over year). - The percentage of buyers with sub-650 FICO scores is reported in the forecast as trending toward 13.3%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from last year; J.D. Power also notes that the level for August was 13.7% in 2018 when referencing historical context. - The average used-vehicle price is trending toward $29,100, up $375 from a year ago. Average trade-in equity in August is expected to be $8,030, up $275 year over year, while 25.3% of trade-ins are expected to carry negative equity (up 1.1 percentage points from August 2024).

Electrification specifics: - J.D. Power reports automaker EV incentives averaged about $6,700 per unit in August (an increase of $1,500 from July), contributing to lower average EV transaction prices—J.D. Power notes average EV transaction prices are down $2,500 to $44,300, which it states is now below the average for gas-powered vehicles. - EV inventory stood at about 197,000 units with a 59-day supply as of the August forecast.

Global context (from GlobalData): - GlobalData notes July global light-vehicle sales rose 5.5% year over year to 7.4 million units, and the July global selling rate finished at 94.5 million units (up from a revised 92.6 million units in June). GlobalData projects August global selling rate around 89.8 million units and a full-year 2025 global light-vehicle forecast of 90.3 million units (growth of 1.7% year over year), while noting regional variations in performance.

The forecast emphasizes that the approaching expiration of federal EV credits, Labor Day timing and tariff-related cost pressures on incentives are key crosscurrents affecting August 2025 sales volumes, mix and pricing.

Sources: J.D. Power and GlobalData August 2025 forecast as reported in J.D. Power press materials and summarized by industry outlets. (See J.D. Power/GlobalData primary release and related coverage.)

Source: Noah Wire Services